Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fffcf749738cf0027a54b9c98a53f4e56e0b18e2c65548e9ebec0cc47d3c3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 70c | 2,100$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 1,916$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.72 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Under | 37c | 1,398$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,143$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.03 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,095$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 1,013$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 868.72$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.79 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 763$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 63c | 325.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 39c | 249.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 170.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 157.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 52c | 139.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 117.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 26c | 109.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 41c | 55.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 61c | 50.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 62c | 42.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 47c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 61c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 63c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 59c | 23.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 69c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.