Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3b50b797a58594b0ae8af61641fa187b9e42d9168f1169bdaa0edc8a3a6489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 44c | 11,370$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,367.2 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 10,982$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,149.65 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 5,282$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 43c | 5,184$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,963.16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 33c | 2,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,758$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 1,137$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.04 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 21c | 907.24$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.72 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 490.34$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.51 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 393.24$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 62c | 249.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…7e3fbacked Under | 51c | 240.61$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 67c | 216.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 209.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 46c | 186.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +71%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 30c | 185.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 38c | 155.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 37c | 131.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 40c | 124.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 45c | 107.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 60c | 81.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 61c | 66.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 63.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 61.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 40c | 59.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 63c | 57.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Over | 37c | 51.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 66c | 43.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76de…85ccbacked Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 65c | 33.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 45c | 28.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f47…742ebacked Under | 64c | 22.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.