Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United beat Southampton?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91cb9560f73b1a468e7f85b07d46dd07146075b6927f4e3f96aa9abfbc97c144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 27c | 781.37$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.97 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…ff37backed Yes | 73c | 556.68$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 28c | 506.39$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked Yes | 66c | 308$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 26c | 299.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 66c | 156.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…10fdbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 74c | 134.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked No | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 27c | 131.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 25c | 120.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed No | 28c | 88.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 32c | 65.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed No | 29c | 60.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…463cbacked Yes | 74c | 45.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 73c | 45.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…87d1backed Yes | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…3838backed Yes | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…24ebbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…c71fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…1187backed Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…1d9abacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…ec52backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United beat Southampton?this page
- Will Newcastle United vs. Southampton end in a draw?No won
- Will Southampton beat Newcastle United?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.