NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91dd5a6c00fdf5ae1cddc2a2cec038b5ac6845795b6116fca97b529f106ceaae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 1,492$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.84 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Oilers | 34c | 1,088$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.24 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers | 35c | 501$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.62 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 147.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Oilers | 29c | 147.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Oilers | 31c | 96.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…2ad5backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 68.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oilers | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Oilers | 29c | 47.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oilers | 32c | 40.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 24.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. Maple LeafsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.