CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f40a6eda3c7f9c3e61a66addfd21e1df17640e2c60f32f0b78ebf5ca236050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof MANA eSports, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MANA eSports | 0c | 4,602$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed HOTU | 76c | 2,800$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MANA eSports | 21c | 2,520$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.05 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked MANA eSports | 24c | 1,800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MANA eSports | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed HOTU | 79c | 714.3$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…a301backed HOTU | 79c | 570.89$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed HOTU | 79c | 531.53$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed HOTU | 76c | 220.33$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed MANA eSports | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…c6c7backed HOTU | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed MANA eSports | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed HOTU | 79c | 84.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked HOTU | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed MANA eSports | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed HOTU | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 225 | 55.6%125 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked HOTU | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed HOTU | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 196 | 55.1%108 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffsthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.