Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91fdd213e84dd28b6757bc108964e97047d9d6c67e44dab2aed6aa8268a31a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6a9…e35abacked Under | 40c | 650.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.39 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Over | 60c | 157.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 950 | 48.5%461 W · 489 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…5dafbacked Under | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 36c | 70.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…2968backed Over | 66c | 53.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed Over | 57c | 48.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Over | 56c | 41.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…8189backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 66c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Over | 78c | 24.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…fec7backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Team WE won
- First Blood in Game 2?JD Gaming won
- Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill?Yes won
- Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)Team WE won
- Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)JD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTeam WE won
- LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam WE won
- LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerJD Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.