MLB · resolved market
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92471c73bb4f5f884db0c2975fb6b662290b8a393516a7ebe3732ad64ad189d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Mets, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa37…ba66backed Mets | 54c | 28,048$15,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,902.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c0…2f5ebacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 27,968$12,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,865.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Mets | 54c | 20,665$11,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,506.36 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 17,553$8,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,078.45 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 9,651$4,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,450.33 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mets | 54c | 8,000$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 3,578$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.59 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 2,497$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.98 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Mets | 50c | 2,202$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.78 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.99 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mets | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mets | 53c | 986.85$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.94 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Mets | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mets | 73c | 966.39$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.01 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 910.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mets | 51c | 865$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.85 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 800$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mets | 53c | 641.28$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.4 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 637.03$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Diamondbacks | 4c | 355$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Diamondbacks | 43c | 214.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Mets | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Mets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mets | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Diamondbacks | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Mets | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…6213backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Diamondbacks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 41.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Diamondbacks | 48c | 37.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Mets | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Diamondbacks | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.