Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9271a564393a9873aa2fe26072bc1567da45852c22ae85f893d09ab5a6d8d092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Over | 50c | 998.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 50c | 254.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Over | 43c | 233.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…94ccbacked Under | 57c | 233.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 195.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 102.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 97.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Over | 11c | 95.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 56.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Over | 50c | 56.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Over | 49c | 26.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 56 | 82.1%46 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a55…3072backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…7bdabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…1538backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…bf1ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…3618backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.