Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9274f0aaea76a33ccae8539632ab0319d7bd2670e2199cbaaeb0debd4c3517be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 4,442$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.41 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 50c | 1,483$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 834.96$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 809.63$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 74c | 745$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 18c | 616.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 49c | 520.41$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.41 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 15c | 313.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 275$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 25c | 266$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 168.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 70.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 23c | 54.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 37c | 37.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 66c | 26.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 73c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.