Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78296b3b478148b62addc6d77edcf0deebfdcb7c2996e08b777f729715b0d49b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 69c | 2,899$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.69 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 2,500$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 7c | 1,942$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 40c | 1,901$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.44 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,535$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 45c | 1,330$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 406.73$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 60c | 351.08$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Under | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 11c | 188.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 179.25$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 172.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 38c | 165.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 146.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 73c | 141.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 10c | 133.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 8cpaid | +300%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 28c | 107.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 30c | 99.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Under | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 64c | 59.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 29c | 46.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 44.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 66c | 39.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 61c | 27.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Over | 42c | 23.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 67c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 67c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 60c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 60c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.