TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: MH Beitar Jerusalem (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
FK Austria Wienof MH Beitar Jerusalem, FK Austria Wien
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,915 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x425b…18f1backed MH Beitar Jerusalem21c4,459$925 inLost-$925.32119%4 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-57.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked FK Austria Wien80c1,956$1,555 inWon+$400.9596947.5%460 W · 509 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FK Austria Wien79c1,755$1,388 inWon+$367.322,99942.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L+7.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed MH Beitar Jerusalem23c1,755$396 inLost-$395.662,47833.9%840 W · 1,638 L-95.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FK Austria Wien75c845$634 inWon+$211.251,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x743c…c386backed MH Beitar Jerusalem26c400$104 inLost-$104837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed MH Beitar Jerusalem7c357$25 inLost-$24.9929337.9%111 W · 182 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed FK Austria Wien79c264$209 inWon+$55.443951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked MH Beitar Jerusalem50c258$129 inLost-$12997846.2%452 W · 526 L-3.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed FK Austria Wien77c251.79$194 inWon+$57.8174155.9%414 W · 327 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed FK Austria Wien79c142$112 inWon+$30.2439357.5%226 W · 167 L+17.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed FK Austria Wien79c107.37$85 inWon+$22.3565549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FK Austria Wien77c97.1$74 inWon+$22.8250354.7%275 W · 228 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FK Austria Wien78c92$72 inWon+$19.991,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c7…fdd8backed MH Beitar Jerusalem24c81.94$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed FK Austria Wien79c80$63 inWon+$16.879554.1%430 W · 365 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed MH Beitar Jerusalem23c55.05$13 inLost-$12.662,34441.6%976 W · 1,368 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed FK Austria Wien78c20.04$16 inWon+$4.4138744.4%172 W · 215 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.