Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92db49062e66d567f4b94266367aa845a175962f40e933a494f73774eed98dca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 26c | 3,010$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.35 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 7c | 2,656$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.92 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 7c | 2,101$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 1,463$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,308$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 1,250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 8c | 922.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…a6a0backed Yes | 23c | 627.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 8c | 562.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Yes | 7c | 462.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 9c | 375.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 8c | 356.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 23c | 339.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 9c | 227.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…5629backed Yes | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4674backed Yes | 9c | 161.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 9c | 156.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 9c | 131.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…22e4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 53.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will Sporting CP vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.