Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92fff63f7e9602e22e4e982127f65026eef80da2ddf5dd540fe4d28a573ca007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6c4…ff18backed Yes | 0c | 11,868$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 675$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 23c | 521.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 351.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 312.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 17c | 239.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 220.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 28c | 178.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 149.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 120.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 28c | 81.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 81.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…ea60backed Yes | 34c | 62.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 37c | 44.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 74c | 36.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 44c | 34.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 71c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…1444backed Yes | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 65c | 28.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…fca9backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 65c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 44°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.