Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x592021500f05ea81ebd9bf7802c66f4c06bd97bcdfe8ca21fcac010813cfc208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ec2…da99backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…cbc7backed Yes | 0c | 18,904$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 5c | 2,217$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,514$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 715$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 318.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 316.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 21c | 294.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 260.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 171.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 18c | 143.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 121.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…fe5fbacked No | 68c | 118.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…f08bbacked Yes | 52c | 88.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 41c | 83.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 23c | 74.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 56c | 63.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 25c | 62.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 58c | 62.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 52c | 61.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 56c | 57.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…3767backed Yes | 43c | 56.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 41c | 54.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 31c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…fca9backed Yes | 25c | 39.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 78c | 27.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 45c | 26.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…959cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3188…9287backed No | 54c | 18.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 44°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.