Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c103fc338cad93be6f4377383712344427c7ff4d30fb1b74908470fb8553ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 26c | 1,285$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.84 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 267.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 13c | 253.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 230.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked Yes | 18c | 184.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 161.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 129.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 19c | 129.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…9dc7backed Yes | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 12c | 97.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 75c | 91.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 90.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 39c | 64.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 72c | 46.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…b50fbacked Yes | 42c | 42.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 61c | 38.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…aa0cbacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…ea07backed No | 67c | 24.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 71c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 80c | 19.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 44°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.