Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9302180a1f34a71c99fd5754cf48f1444d17e010931c0ef0d8b6428ef6cea628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 6,456$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.39 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 1,459$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Over | 63c | 1,432$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 1,246$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.85 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 60c | 900$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 41c | 597.14$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.58 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 40c | 573$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.2 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 182.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 59c | 165.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Over | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 46c | 98.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 60c | 92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 62c | 80.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 43c | 78.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 28c | 70.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 24c | 42.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 60c | 40.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Under | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Under | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Under | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 57c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 80c | 17.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.