Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0675ed9946968336e606695a2b2d1f3d6a7768140722642c15745ec53fb1bcf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,802$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 19c | 800.12$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 19c | 595.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 25c | 568.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 486.27$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 19c | 480.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 334.16$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 35c | 285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 44c | 185.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 79c | 185.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 44c | 114.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 103.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked Under | 47c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 59.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 80c | 53.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 53c | 25.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…7a96backed Under | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Under | 69c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.