Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9aaf08fd157f3afd4d27287e6f59c28e89b23c5ef2759d89f3633ced4b5dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 38c | 4,999$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.39 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,292$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 39c | 2,923$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.7 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,981$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 62c | 1,226$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.12 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 60c | 411.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 61c | 306.57$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 63c | 306$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked Under | 61c | 295.05$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 72c | 277.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 63c | 251.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 63c | 216$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Under | 62c | 209$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 62c | 192.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…d93dbacked Under | 62c | 162$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 149.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 63c | 117$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 110.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 62c | 94.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 63c | 94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…4cf3backed Under | 62c | 80.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d0…e72ebacked Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 39c | 72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 51c | 56.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 50c | 50.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…0c4fbacked Under | 62c | 43.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…a876backed Under | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 32c | 41.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 62c | 41.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9a…becbbacked Under | 63c | 40.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 36c | 40.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 64c | 37.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 62c | 32.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 41c | 27.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Under | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 56c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.