Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x930f598befd2f03bba171822d917b29aec802dc360ed0a34418ceb49adc57f80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valinorof Valinor, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Valinor | 55c | 771.99$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Valinor | 51c | 561.29$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.16 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 502.7$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.76 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 241.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.32 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -8.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…fa34backed Valinor | 51c | 143.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 98.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Valinor | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.