Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeb5d32aa52f7a1baeb64fa0452544df85ec782d20adc70458596da0f68b554a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Valinor, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.99 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Valinor | 49c | 1,551$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.69 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Valinor | 11c | 1,211$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…c4d7backed Valinor | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba5…9d01backed Valinor | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Valinor | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 702.32$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.92 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 666.93$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.03 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 539.51$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.49 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Valinor | 35c | 504.35$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 503.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.73 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…bebfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…1675backed Valinor | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 295.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…a4e0backed Valinor | 25c | 240.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Valinor | 22c | 227.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 209.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -8.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 201.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945c…9721backed Valinor | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…6f8abacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…c451backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 182.14$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…a4a0backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Valinor | 44c | 165.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Valinor | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Valinor | 62c | 160.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Valinor | 62c | 159.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Valinor | 29c | 158.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked Valinor | 59c | 151.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Valinor | 54c | 150.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Valinor | 37c | 144.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…bb95backed Valinor | 64c | 138.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Valinor | 31c | 128.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 122.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Valinor | 57c | 115.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 108.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…3398backed Valinor | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…aa1dbacked Valinor | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Valinor | 57c | 98.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 96.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 90.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Valinor | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2f…cccebacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 85.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 84.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…1532backed Valinor | 60c | 83.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Valinor | 51c | 81.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Valinor | 31c | 78.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2922…30f1backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…600ebacked Valinor | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Valinor | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 55.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…ecb6backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Valinor | 38c | 48.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Valinor | 39c | 47.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 45.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Valinor | 60c | 45.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…f488backed Valinor | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbc…8a70backed Valinor | 61c | 35.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…528abacked Valinor | 47c | 33.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Valinor | 53c | 33.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 32.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Valinor | 53c | 32.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…0995backed Valinor | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…0abbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 31.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…9192backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 78cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 29.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 29.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…d755backed Valinor | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…3367backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c3…b0f5backed Valinor | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Valinor | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Valinor | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…3c44backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Valinor | 51c | 19.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerValinor won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.