Weather · resolved market
2025 July hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93317bbd26c133d3a28698c706fa051c8adcf5691b7179c861175a03a986b843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes | 1c | 31,315$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.89 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 16,391$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Yes | 5c | 15,992$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 2c | 13,632$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 7,980$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…1d87backed Yes | 3c | 7,271$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,769$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 2c | 6,012$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…4985backed Yes | 4c | 4,999$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 2c | 4,274$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,439$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…f328backed Yes | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,060$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,826$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,225$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,045$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…cb53backed Yes | 2c | 2,009$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…07b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,896$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…7062backed Yes | 6c | 1,530$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce7…81babacked Yes | 7c | 1,431$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes | 7c | 1,371$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…fb95backed Yes | 3c | 1,096$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…f62ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,040$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…8658backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed Yes | 9c | 992.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 3c | 871$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…a167backed Yes | 7c | 851.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…2637backed Yes | 4c | 818.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…ca68backed Yes | 3c | 779.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…fa80backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…45cebacked Yes | 2c | 654.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…8d7dbacked Yes | 9c | 622.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked Yes | 11c | 520.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…03cdbacked Yes | 4c | 499.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 3c | 483.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7f…6726backed Yes | 4c | 454.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…da66backed Yes | 4c | 448.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 3c | 407.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…635cbacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…27cebacked Yes | 4c | 346.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…5038backed Yes | 7c | 287.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…80acbacked Yes | 5c | 278.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed Yes | 8c | 254.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd67…b9fabacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…5559backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…5c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 166.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…7b30backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…5638backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.