Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93741774bee1957ac97b2e606df3828abf598ae02e910d808dae9a25ba779cbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- D familyof D family, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Mentality Monster | 1c | 1,909$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Mentality Monster | 76c | 1,556$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.4 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked D family | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster | 76c | 850.37$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.46 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster | 62c | 542.85$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.91 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked D family | 20c | 532.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.08 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked D family | 41c | 456.7$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked D family | 61c | 402.74$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Mentality Monster | 68c | 387.76$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.85 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed D family | 26c | 297.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.08 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Mentality Monster | 72c | 267.69$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Mentality Monster | 78c | 251.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…825ebacked D family | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Mentality Monster | 50c | 165$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Mentality Monster | 14c | 150.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked D family | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Mentality Monster | 37c | 149.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked D family | 21c | 121.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked D family | 21c | 92.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Mentality Monster | 52c | 91.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked D family | 28c | 88.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Mentality Monster | 78c | 85.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked D family | 48c | 83.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee3…e851backed D family | 50c | 80.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed39…d761backed Mentality Monster | 50c | 80.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked D family | 24c | 66.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Mentality Monster | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Mentality Monster | 48c | 58.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mentality Monster | 43c | 58.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Mentality Monster | 76c | 51.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Mentality Monster | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…4c14backed Mentality Monster | 65c | 46.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…3b90backed D family | 32c | 44.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Mentality Monster | 67c | 42.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Mentality Monster | 76c | 27.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Mentality Monster | 55c | 20.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed Mentality Monster | 76c | 15.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 WinnerD family won
- Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerMentality Monster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.