Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9374e2edfec1f99a6abe37e21c5a854162d2616d57d6379c247f4ca7e8261ae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 54c | 13,555$7,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,339.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 6,504$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,465.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 5,695$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.03 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Over | 53c | 5,258$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 46c | 3,749$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 1,512$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.77 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 47c | 1,366$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 995.54$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.55 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 56c | 453.42$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 373.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.41 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 34c | 368.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.14 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 47c | 309.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 46c | 292.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…2e5abacked Under | 49c | 280.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 46c | 276.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 46c | 215$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 59c | 171.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 117$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 111.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 45c | 73.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 58c | 68.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…f36bbacked Over | 54c | 46.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…80e3backed Under | 47c | 46.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 46c | 29.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.