Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x937ab7e08fd5b7b0b982b4fc4b84033591719458dd43baa8146a0347c29693ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shnaiderof Pegula, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Pegula | 52c | 14,485$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shnaider | 48c | 4,298$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.96 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shnaider | 48c | 3,750$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Shnaider | 49c | 3,253$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.08 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shnaider | 48c | 2,514$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.4 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Shnaider | 50c | 1,429$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.29 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e97…6561backed Pegula | 53c | 1,342$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Shnaider | 56c | 659.16$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.03 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Shnaider | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Pegula | 52c | 452.71$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2799backed Shnaider | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Shnaider | 48c | 358.96$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.66 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 47c | 298$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Pegula | 44c | 211.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Shnaider | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Shnaider | 47c | 180.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…32f0backed Pegula | 9c | 116.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Pegula | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Shnaider | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Shnaider | 51c | 91.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Shnaider | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Shnaider | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Shnaider | 50c | 43.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e58…4309backed Pegula | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Shnaider | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Pegula | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…b867backed Shnaider | 50c | 26.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Shnaider | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)this page
- Jessica Pegula vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana ShnaiderDiana Shnaider won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs ShnaiderShnaider won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.