Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ad0407d469cbab2caa1d1975591c36dffacb8da59c94330bc730bcfd7562e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,626 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 506.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 457$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.23 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 437.76$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.41 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 293.7$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 35c | 143.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 120.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 65c | 120.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 64c | 106.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 60c | 81.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Under | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 67.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Under | 67c | 62.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 45.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 60c | 32.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 33c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.