Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93b15fecea0ee8266fad6ce5b10d8880905459f92626213c8ec47ff2ba68936b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,443$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,121$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 855.67$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.07 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 31c | 278.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 49c | 112.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 52c | 103.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…b131backed Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 55c | 81.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 53c | 81.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 64.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 48c | 39.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 52c | 36.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 23.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 54c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.