Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd549cf522e5d2afb04af03754d235eeb71ed79e4192f8f81f6b026239eb2fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 37c | 1,805$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.77 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 1,490$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.16 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 1,081$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.51 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 78c | 892.71$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 724.48$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 61c | 607.18$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 70c | 409$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 56c | 285.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…e3c2backed Under | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…ad6fbacked Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 23c | 182.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 73c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 49c | 62.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 58.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 51.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 56c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 75c | 35.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 58c | 30.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 78c | 23.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 52c | 19.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.