Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f48edd121f80608edfa38179d2e82762bd9774ea8f127c7089c4901ec05261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 9,826$7,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,728.99 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 26c | 3,253$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.11 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 16c | 1,855$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.74 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,535$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.11 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 858.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 800$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 649.51$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…9266backed Yes | 19c | 539.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Yes | 18c | 535$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a9e9backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 18c | 431$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Yes | 16c | 337.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 15c | 334.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 17c | 301.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Yes | 16c | 287.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…4edfbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…9fb3backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 16c | 109.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 80.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…3238backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…a27ebacked Yes | 19c | 53.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will AC Milan vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?No won
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.