Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93e1e0485933ebf020cc3230fe89804df8c4937c38b32347439f1f7409ab1ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03cf…f27dbacked No | 75c | 757.33$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 48c | 730.44$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.62 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…9266backed Yes | 62c | 484.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…f6e1backed Yes | 27c | 373.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 372.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a9e9backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 54c | 340$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.03 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 61c | 324.12$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 27c | 312.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 24c | 293.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 196$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…22d2backed Yes | 61c | 164.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 27c | 131.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 42c | 119.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…5e38backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6274…ce95backed Yes | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 76.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 47c | 74.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…507cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…b058backed Yes | 56c | 67.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 26c | 63.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 37c | 62.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ef…2516backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0a6dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 69c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked No | 50c | 31.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19?Yes won
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.