Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943f2cae1c9f352b31fef40f549e2a993bca7d5c90961d5a787feef3638160be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 0c | 5,489$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 20c | 606.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 460.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 69c | 416.57$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 307.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 281.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 25c | 192.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 57c | 147.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 139.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…d00bbacked Yes | 29c | 138.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 73c | 137.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 126.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 119.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 54c | 115.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 24c | 114.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 94.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked No | 71c | 92.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 46c | 88.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 88.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 86.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 37c | 83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 80.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 78.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…8395backed No | 75c | 73.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 22c | 62.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 28c | 60.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 56.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 54c | 55.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 44c | 49.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 46.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 39.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 39.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…1787backed Yes | 68c | 32.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 57c | 18.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked No | 79c | 18.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 17.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 76c | 17.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.