Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UCLA Bruins (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9442eea1703f039107689264cb87e28fe1fb4bdb4f35f8a2a7a53e48612bc809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLA Bruinsof UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,785 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3817…7d10backed USC Trojans | 54c | 829.96$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.05 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed UCLA Bruins | 46c | 746.72$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.23 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed USC Trojans | 52c | 571.88$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 497.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.1 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCLA Bruins | 48c | 397.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed USC Trojans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed USC Trojans | 49c | 191$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed UCLA Bruins | 49c | 178.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 148.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed USC Trojans | 50c | 135.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed USC Trojans | 50c | 99.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed UCLA Bruins | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked USC Trojans | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked USC Trojans | 50c | 89.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed UCLA Bruins | 50c | 69.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked UCLA Bruins | 45c | 65.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked UCLA Bruins | 46c | 47.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked USC Trojans | 53c | 41.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed USC Trojans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UCLA Bruins (-6.5)this page
- Spread: UCLA Bruins (-5.5)UCLA Bruins won
- UCLA Bruins vs. USC TrojansUCLA Bruins won
- UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans: O/U 149.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.