Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94504ca172a60c8ffe4bd253e5ba3986b8215b3660f0867dd1e1c6ef59bbdbb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Auger-Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 373.84$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 282.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…f868backed Tien | 58c | 259.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 252.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c2…b6a5backed Auger-Aliassime | 68c | 226.88$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…a143backed Tien | 55c | 199.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Tien | 45c | 192.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tien | 46c | 191.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tien | 54c | 189.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 178.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tien | 44c | 163.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tien | 35c | 138$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Tien | 48c | 116$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Tien | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Auger-Aliassime | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…eb2dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 94.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 67.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tien | 45c | 51.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…ba0bbacked Tien | 49c | 28.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 22.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassimethis page
- Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-AliassimeFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Tien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.