Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Struff vs Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a06577ee18bd2c4900a4c9706e71d0f6f6b3068e6f59a3d7679dc8d6e969df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Struff, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Struff | 39c | 1,082$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.38 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…6a74backed Bublik | 64c | 979.23$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Struff | 45c | 894.44$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Struff | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bublik | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Bublik | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Bublik | 62c | 381.14$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.35 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Struff | 36c | 340.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bublik | 55c | 273.74$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Bublik | 58c | 164.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Struff | 42c | 161.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Struff | 42c | 116.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9335backed Struff | 43c | 115.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Bublik | 76c | 110.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bublik | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Bublik | 61c | 97.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Bublik | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Bublik | 57c | 89.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…3646backed Struff | 47c | 85.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bublik | 60c | 80.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bublik | 64c | 63.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Bublik | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Bublik | 61c | 44.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…c98cbacked Bublik | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Bublik | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Struff | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4877…718ebacked Bublik | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…3bc5backed Bublik | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Bublik | 62c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…a312backed Bublik | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Struff vs Bublikthis page
- Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5)Struff won
- Struff vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Struff vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander BublikAlexander Bublik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.