Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b5d305b7147c03d9a662ef01bd4ddedc679e113740486ffbcaeb9a76823f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 2c | 600.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 23c | 428.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.76 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 394.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 356.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 297.31$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 67c | 289.38$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 67c | 288.49$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 19c | 224.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.89 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 77c | 213.07$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 212.57$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 48c | 189.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 149.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 38c | 136.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 132.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 53c | 126.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 122.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 119.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 21c | 111.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 104.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 76c | 100.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 11c | 100.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 98.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 95.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 95.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 21c | 79.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 66c | 73.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 72.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 79c | 66.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 21c | 66.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 23c | 66.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 65.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 56.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 79c | 48.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…c910backed No | 80c | 46.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 66c | 43.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 42.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 41.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 41.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 25c | 40.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 77c | 35.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 75c | 33.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 34c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161d…4fe4backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked Yes | 68c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 77c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…7fc6backed No | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 39c | 26.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 44c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 57c | 25.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 71c | 25.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9754backed No | 77c | 25.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 78c | 24.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 66c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed No | 80c | 19.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.