Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43359c73581e50e72c02563333501aaf4e27ec66c8dda5aeb1c4e9c6f835ea8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 479.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 7c | 191.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 27c | 188.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 172.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 27c | 169.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 151.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 142.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 134.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 132.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 130.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 129.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 112.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 98.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 22c | 88.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…5ecebacked Yes | 32c | 86.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 85.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 83.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Yes | 34c | 81.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 36c | 79.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 23c | 78.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 27c | 77.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 74.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 74.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 68.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 67.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 63.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 58.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 56.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 52.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 51.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 51.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 22c | 50.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 45c | 41.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 31c | 39.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 36.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 28c | 36.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 77c | 31.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 31.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 77c | 31.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 74c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…99bbbacked No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 75c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 72c | 25.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…7fc6backed No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No | 75c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 76c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.