MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d74fa2a92f74ba2b347e2676fa3495ddf873432042d48242db233b47326220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 54c | 8,307$4,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,823.03 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 55c | 4,379$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.33 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 4,193$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.92 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 1,549$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 46c | 1,262$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.56 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 46c | 1,089$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.06 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 999.07$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 46c | 889.52$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.69 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 686.77$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 444.6$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 46c | 360$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 46c | 290.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 54c | 277.17$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 267.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 230.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 46c | 204.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 201.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 173.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 157.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 147.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 47c | 138.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 136.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 119.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 100.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 50c | 98.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 46c | 92.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 83.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…ae72backed Under | 39c | 76.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 55c | 61.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 59.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 58.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 49.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 54c | 44.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 45c | 43.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 46c | 43.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 39.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 46c | 32.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 30.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 46c | 28.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 58c | 26.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 25.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over | 54c | 24.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 72c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Under | 63c | 16.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-9.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.