MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a94bc2ca6a0dd69979870fc095be34f1bb771c6115578c39dc214661a87112d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 999.97$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.98 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 953.91$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.61 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…db73backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 795.14$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.37 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 492.82$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 488.6$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.93 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 472.51$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 470.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.62 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 360.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 311.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 192.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 176.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 174.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 128.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 112.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 95.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 79.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 79.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 77.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 48.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 35.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 25.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-9.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.