UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94db806a2e8f7888d385774642e2178bc362d3a59c35a5de1d513a77da084476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48c2…7f23backed Yes | 26c | 794.73$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…c1c3backed No | 74c | 794.73$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…24f9backed No | 74c | 506.7$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…54b9backed Yes | 26c | 506.7$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…0752backed No | 74c | 208$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6583…046bbacked Yes | 26c | 208$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 20c | 177.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 70c | 156.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…b8b8backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…fb74backed No | 80c | 141.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…0047backed Yes | 26c | 136.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…1fb0backed No | 74c | 136.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 77c | 43.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked No | 71c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Navajo Stirling won
- Will Bruno Lopes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.