UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66b81cad703c74a8cfba97c740b8ea69c4409090504b584298be7fa489c65dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Over | 62c | 2,475$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 39c | 2,402$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.32 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 38c | 1,355$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.11 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Over | 62c | 850$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0b…c5f8backed Over | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…2a8bbacked Under | 42c | 347.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e9b3backed Over | 58c | 180.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4897backed Over | 58c | 166.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 57c | 132.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Under | 43c | 65.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +189%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…cb55backed Under | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Over | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Over | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Over | 62c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 40c | 28.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Navajo Stirling won
- Will Bruno Lopes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.