UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38fd6a3f4b0691395769ea4d64a465236a743da8cb2f8b72de391ad80a62f2a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navajo Stirlingof Bruno Lopes, Navajo Stirling
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $577,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $733,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 168,396$26,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,923.25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Bruno Lopes | 15c | 56,752$8,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,512.83 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 55,719$8,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,781.63 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Bruno Lopes | 12c | 27,607$3,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,304.64 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 13,002$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.2 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 12,754$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.16 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Bruno Lopes | 12c | 5,782$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Bruno Lopes | 19c | 5,541$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.63 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bruno Lopes | 15c | 3,388$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.54 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Bruno Lopes | 18c | 3,174$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.45 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bruno Lopes | 15c | 2,796$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.39 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Navajo Stirling | 80c | 2,227$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.4 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 1,827$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 1,812$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…6bf7backed Bruno Lopes | 3c | 1,260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +78%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Navajo Stirling | 80c | 1,123$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +10.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 779.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Bruno Lopes | 8c | 736.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Bruno Lopes | 3c | 659.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…8c8dbacked Bruno Lopes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bruno Lopes | 11c | 532.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Bruno Lopes | 12c | 504$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 442.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d2…7c0dbacked Bruno Lopes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Navajo Stirling | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…865cbacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 358.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 346.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…4cd5backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 334.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Bruno Lopes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…77cfbacked Bruno Lopes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…4ce6backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Bruno Lopes | 12c | 283$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…814dbacked Bruno Lopes | 19c | 277$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Bruno Lopes | 17c | 264.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 243.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4296…a9b1backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…706abacked Bruno Lopes | 20c | 234.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Bruno Lopes | 11c | 223$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…a696backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 200.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Bruno Lopes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…1e5cbacked Bruno Lopes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc939…6e0fbacked Bruno Lopes | 17c | 152.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…e1f7backed Bruno Lopes | 10c | 150.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bruno Lopes | 17c | 149.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…44c3backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Bruno Lopes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 138.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 138.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dab…dc59backed Bruno Lopes | 20c | 135.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…46d6backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…cfb5backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…737ebacked Bruno Lopes | 13c | 130.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Bruno Lopes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…e8e1backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 118.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Bruno Lopes | 11c | 113.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bruno Lopes | 20c | 109.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…eb8bbacked Bruno Lopes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Bruno Lopes | 19c | 102.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bruno Lopes | 14c | 100.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Bruno Lopes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Bruno Lopes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…6578backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…b3c5backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Bruno Lopes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…8634backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 67.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…1214backed Bruno Lopes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812d…c88dbacked Bruno Lopes | 16c | 63.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…b868backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…e854backed Bruno Lopes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Navajo Stirling | 80c | 33.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…196bbacked Navajo Stirling | 79c | 30.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Navajo Stirling | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Bruno Lopes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.