TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Navajo Stirlingof Bruno Lopes, Navajo Stirling
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$577,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$733,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,675 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Bruno Lopes16c168,396$26,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,923.253447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bruno Lopes15c56,752$8,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,512.8335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bruno Lopes16c55,719$8,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,781.633842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Bruno Lopes12c27,607$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.6429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Bruno Lopes15c13,002$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bruno Lopes16c12,754$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.168848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Bruno Lopes12c5,782$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.54548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Bruno Lopes19c5,541$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.639746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bruno Lopes15c3,388$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.548754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Bruno Lopes18c3,174$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.4514643.8%64 W · 82 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Bruno Lopes15c2,796$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.3918038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Navajo Stirling80c2,227$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.410949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Bruno Lopes16c1,827$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.832934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Bruno Lopes16c1,812$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.623941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0b3…6bf7backed Bruno Lopes3c1,260$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365653.6%30 W · 26 L+9.9wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+78%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Navajo Stirling80c1,123$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.84981.6%40 W · 9 L+10.4wins+0.21per pick60cpaid+43.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Bruno Lopes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Bruno Lopes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bruno Lopes15c779.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4926736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Bruno Lopes8c736.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6122438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Bruno Lopes15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Bruno Lopes15c670$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.513940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Bruno Lopes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bruno Lopes3c659.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.827448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ec…8c8dbacked Bruno Lopes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bruno Lopes11c532.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Bruno Lopes12c504$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.695541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Bruno Lopes17c442.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Bruno Lopes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6036745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d2…7c0dbacked Bruno Lopes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Navajo Stirling80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b6…865cbacked Bruno Lopes16c375$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bruno Lopes15c358.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.735650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Bruno Lopes17c346.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.948636%31 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…4cd5backed Bruno Lopes15c334.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bruno Lopes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91a…4ea7backed Bruno Lopes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebd9…77cfbacked Bruno Lopes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7914…4ce6backed Bruno Lopes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506741.8%28 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Bruno Lopes12c283$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.774240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55bc…814dbacked Bruno Lopes19c277$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75c7…909dbacked Bruno Lopes17c264.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455250%26 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Bruno Lopes16c243.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4296…a9b1backed Bruno Lopes17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6f…706abacked Bruno Lopes20c234.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Bruno Lopes11c223$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x270d…a696backed Bruno Lopes15c200.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Bruno Lopes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07dd…029bbacked Bruno Lopes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210351.5%53 W · 50 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked Bruno Lopes17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked Bruno Lopes17c152.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.912236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ac…e1f7backed Bruno Lopes10c150.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Bruno Lopes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2456450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bruno Lopes17c149.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3614827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b9b…44c3backed Bruno Lopes17c147.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252236.4%8 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Bruno Lopes17c147.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed Bruno Lopes15c138.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Bruno Lopes16c138.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.772343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dab…dc59backed Bruno Lopes20c135.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9107…46d6backed Bruno Lopes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd1…cfb5backed Bruno Lopes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x217d…737ebacked Bruno Lopes13c130.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Bruno Lopes15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912546.4%58 W · 67 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef6…8c16backed Bruno Lopes16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211337.2%42 W · 71 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d3…e8e1backed Bruno Lopes17c118.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Bruno Lopes11c113.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2418540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bruno Lopes20c109.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5619230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f52…eb8bbacked Bruno Lopes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787a…9199backed Bruno Lopes19c102.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bruno Lopes14c100.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.713221.2%28 W · 104 L-11.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Bruno Lopes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Bruno Lopes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177352.1%38 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Bruno Lopes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4fd…6578backed Bruno Lopes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Bruno Lopes17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4a…b3c5backed Bruno Lopes17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bruno Lopes17c82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.947528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Bruno Lopes17c76.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1318647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Bruno Lopes17c70.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Bruno Lopes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55952.5%31 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa6…8634backed Bruno Lopes17c67.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af4…1214backed Bruno Lopes17c64.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812d…c88dbacked Bruno Lopes16c63.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x905d…b868backed Bruno Lopes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe71…e854backed Bruno Lopes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Navajo Stirling80c33.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x726a…196bbacked Navajo Stirling79c30.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf237…4989backed Navajo Stirling80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.