Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9501805f4f95880797c7ac0fa62d6c2d43dcd1eac50b6342448d75b4daf8d7e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,313 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 2,501$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 12c | 455.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 406.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 394.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 8c | 360.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 263.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 258.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 8c | 208.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 190.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 184.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…1195backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 20c | 100.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ff…09d5backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…3a66backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 17c | 81.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 80c | 77.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 19c | 76.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 59.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 80c | 57.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…c66dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.