TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,872 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe383…9d00backed Yes33c2,697$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb2…bb29backed Yes33c2,693$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes41c1,691$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.911,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes41c1,620$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.543732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4358…fb04backed No67c1,364$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e7…d1f0backed No67c1,349$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1516…64bbbacked No67c1,344$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf453…bf30backed No67c1,333$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No59c588.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c546.42$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes48c545.23$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.63452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No75c460.42$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.595356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No21c458.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6713453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Yes48c446.49$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.932133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c405.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No52c390.15$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.093,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c355.68$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Yes47c332.91$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.321936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes73c305.55$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.521641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No56c300.42$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.981,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c258.32$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes36c238.76$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes46c200.18$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7111126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No76c193.1$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14641070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No46c190.7$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.141,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes29c187.55$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes58c184.47$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1432157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No59c175.44$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4332652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x132e…c1dfbacked Yes45c174$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c164.9$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed No61c159.46$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2517665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa8…afb6backed Yes46c157$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+79.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0d2…c042backed Yes34c145.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes28c144.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.152,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0428…285cbacked Yes46c142$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed No52c139.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes43c126.85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.866445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d67…2b6abacked No74c125.67$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes66c122.82$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2431170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No62c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6532760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes22c119.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5915626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes28c119.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.822540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No32c119.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No37c119.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.592326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes36c117.42$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.155129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes31c117.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7632818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No66c113.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c111.13$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.083,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes30c104.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.111,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed No72c103.42$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4610841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7526236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes32c99.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2716434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c98.86$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No58c91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes40c91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.261,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.11,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No58c90$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.22,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No68c90$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c89.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.668,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes26c83.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0521440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No60c83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.813748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes31c81.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.355919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No56c78.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7234651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes26c77.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8614736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a78…e93fbacked No56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes27c73.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.214124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes32c71.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3633726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No75c69.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.829056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No59c69.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1710360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No58c68.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5338840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c64.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.052,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes31c63.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1621235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df1…ab0abacked No54c63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d3f…ae75backed No74c61.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.18425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-65.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11dc…fac5backed No41c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3712…f40ebacked No75c59.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c25…87c0backed Yes41c58.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.124146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f3…769bbacked No57c56.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322661.5%16 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1f…5712backed No54c56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e27…9694backed Yes41c54.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…82a0backed Yes39c52.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes28c51.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.164131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes34c51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes33c50.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0217144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.212932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2cc…2d9abacked No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick30cpaid-87.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes29c48.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.942412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes35c48.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.387841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes29c47.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.871,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No60c46.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.681,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c43.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes33c42.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.32236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d33…0199backed Yes30c42.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.452161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes24c42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.