Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d006072f1f16812dc957eb3d3e64fbe839eeca4fb017b124903ee0a55f3767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,509 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2060…db34backed Yes | 0c | 16,020$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 9c | 1,747$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 9c | 1,374$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,153$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…9961backed Yes | 16c | 902.5$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47c…e36bbacked Yes | 14c | 802.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 698.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…6c40backed Yes | 11c | 479.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 446.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 377.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 352.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 292.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 261.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 12c | 257.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 12c | 239.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…2d9abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 7c | 198.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 174.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 13c | 154.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 9c | 145.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 120.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a6bbacked Yes | 14c | 117.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 10c | 100.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…ecd3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 22c | 90.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 90.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 16c | 88.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 14c | 88.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 13c | 84.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 77c | 84.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…33febacked Yes | 14c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…2625backed Yes | 16c | 80.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…3c08backed Yes | 14c | 72.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 54.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 19c | 53.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.