TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,369 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2060…db34backed Yes0c13,077$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b5…5ea4backed Yes36c2,779$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f3…f15abacked Yes35c2,717$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd35d…a786backed Yes35c2,693$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6796…f1f2backed Yes35c2,626$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bff…7c0ebacked No64c1,411$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2979…7946backed No65c1,394$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed99…ef94backed No64c1,368$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d29…d725backed No65c1,362$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7650…1c3ebacked No65c1,359$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…2bbebacked No65c1,355$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb5…d77dbacked No65c1,299$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb80…78cbbacked No65c1,267$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes48c1,075$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.843732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No64c885.62$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.8432157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No72c764.71$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.4891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes34c531.84$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.723452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c486.81$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes27c415$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.224,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c368.62$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf350…9961backed Yes58c343.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11dc…fac5backed No50c280$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c264$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes21c228.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c220.73$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.133,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No66c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.396950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No65c199.98$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9912540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes28c199.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2911126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes30c199.13$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1638840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0d2…c042backed Yes51c194.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes25c171.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1872222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c51…d7aebacked No76c170.45$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.812825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c163.42$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.472,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c157.88$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.058,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Yes37c156.95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.752133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed No79c146.36$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.086144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No73c133.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.867081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes27c129.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c126.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No67c124.62$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.582326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No71c122.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5516355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No69c120.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2513531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.943333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes25c119.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No59c117.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.361,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Yes37c109.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.591936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes28c102.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.15733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb166…29bfbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.623318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-57.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.917433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes33c99.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2921641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes35c99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8116434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed No78c96.77$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2910841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes48c96.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.22657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…4a18backed Yes33c96.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.722,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes32c94.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.221547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No51c94.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c92.66$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.173,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes27c91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.771,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c90.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.833,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c25…87c0backed Yes48c78.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.554146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes26c75.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b0b…3b3fbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c71.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.332,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No72c69.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes36c69.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0734219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8814736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No69c65.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4210360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No45c64.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4913453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No79c63.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6915155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd03…932fbacked Yes30c63.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.064126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No60c63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes51c59.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a0…1907backed Yes28c55.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34739.6%7 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd524…0f5abacked Yes54c55.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…c872backed Yes27c54.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.751118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No74c54.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes39c51.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No49c50.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes60c50.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1217144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3312932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145812.1%7 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c47.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No64c46.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No44c46.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes45c45.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No51c45.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.351,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No50c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.513748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x884f…c132backed Yes62c44.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.562832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7aa9…858dbacked Yes29c43.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5220…901dbacked Yes58c43.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes35c43.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No69c42.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4111878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No43c42.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.298248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.