Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95072d2a7dc67b60acc1bfc006007701b6269f40cc2c662e80f4cdb43f3238f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed No | 52c | 999.93$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.96 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 48c | 529.96$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.58 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…af8abacked No | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c1…9d81backed Yes | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 53c | 399.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.97 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed No | 55c | 273.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…463cbacked Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…25a7backed No | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…0a87backed Yes | 47c | 210.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…7f9bbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…b949backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Yes | 47c | 179.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…5ab3backed Yes | 47c | 172.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 45c | 133.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 53c | 121.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1999…fedbbacked No | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 51c | 112.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…f48bbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdff…3e7fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 29c | 97.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 47c | 84.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…2eeabacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…8703backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 43c | 52.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…1dfbbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…7da0backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…bfd9backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b425backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…4479backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…8528backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3b…468ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…84efbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…6bd7backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 53c | 23.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…3ac0backed Yes | 51c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…7e1ebacked Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…3b6abacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…fd9ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-02?this page
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. West Ham end in a draw?No won
- Will West Ham win on 2024-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.