Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955a425e24597aab8607da8e990267764c17118fcbd2e6947f1bb62a01de1900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stray Teamof Stray Team, SoloTeam
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Stray Team | 47c | 1,055$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.5 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked SoloTeam | 46c | 887.89$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.45 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed SoloTeam | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Stray Team | 44c | 413.28$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Stray Team | 59c | 399.98$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked SoloTeam | 74c | 351.5$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.11 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed SoloTeam | 51c | 295.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed SoloTeam | 38c | 283.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Stray Team | 43c | 154.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stray Team | 47c | 120.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Stray Team | 59c | 104.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…100ebacked SoloTeam | 58c | 103.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Stray Team | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed SoloTeam | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Stray Team | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…fd2bbacked SoloTeam | 63c | 69.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked SoloTeam | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked SoloTeam | 43c | 55.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Stray Team | 32c | 52.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…4a19backed Stray Team | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Stray Team | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Stray Team | 36c | 38.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked SoloTeam | 68c | 22.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Stray Team | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…cd18backed Stray Team | 55c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsSoloTeam won
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 WinnerSoloTeam won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.