Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956933dbff8e5ffb6a34b8e0c19ea059303f15e89bb38c7968699c751a92f286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00dd…c1ccbacked Yes | 25c | 3,760$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…5d67backed No | 75c | 1,358$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…8c76backed No | 75c | 1,252$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…2b7bbacked No | 75c | 1,150$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…94c2backed Yes | 4c | 732.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 14c | 392.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 350$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 15c | 312.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 251.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 203.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 70c | 196.62$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 41c | 182$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 159.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 25c | 153.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 149.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 148.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 148.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 143.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…dbfbbacked Yes | 23c | 131.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 29c | 117.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 13c | 115.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 108.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d4…51cbbacked Yes | 24c | 97.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked No | 78c | 67.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 79c | 65.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…1064backed Yes | 24c | 63.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 77c | 60.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 53.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 53.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 47.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 45.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 39c | 37.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…a6b7backed No | 68c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 74c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…7462backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…58b8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed No | 67c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 80c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.