Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7312bdc440fda07d0dac4e7307d8763127029e83c65a9f774722d50cd2bdeadb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 310.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 47c | 289.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 34c | 265.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 238.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 45c | 217.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 50c | 215.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 191.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 163.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 143.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 142.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 135.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 126.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 33c | 124.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 25c | 121.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 110.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 106.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 34c | 103.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 103.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 40c | 103.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 94.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 63c | 84.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 72.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 70.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…665fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 50c | 65.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 62c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 57c | 63.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 62.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…6690backed Yes | 45c | 57.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 57.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…0f8abacked Yes | 54c | 56.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 64c | 53.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 41c | 48.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 46c | 45.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcc…b878backed No | 57c | 38.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 41c | 37.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 37.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 60c | 32.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…dfffbacked Yes | 34c | 31.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…f54ebacked No | 72c | 30.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…8b8fbacked No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 37c | 28.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…5e84backed No | 64c | 28.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…91e9backed Yes | 41c | 27.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 60c | 27.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…e4c1backed No | 80c | 21.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 20.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 62c | 19.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 64c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked No | 60c | 18.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…e64ebacked No | 62c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 69c | 17.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed No | 65c | 16.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.