TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on February 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1558…4f75backed No64c771.07$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.624271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes33c742.47$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1138840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes19c639.02$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.121,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes30c508.47$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.197719.5%15 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No70c475.65$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.461,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes34c425.25$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes34c316.68$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10866543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2033…7a6cbacked Yes46c278.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.21315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c272.13$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No66c265$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8131170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x72a9…44d3backed Yes26c263.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes45c251.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.527835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf649…5bb6backed Yes58c249.42$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.392725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes7c239.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7538515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes14c200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes25c175.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes35c170.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa301…b4efbacked Yes56c166.54$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.125360.4%32 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed Yes23c161.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8311129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes60c154.57$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7410043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4914…722ebacked Yes26c154.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405429.6%16 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c147.53$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.652,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ebc…cd5dbacked Yes39c140.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes34c133.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14b…5a48backed Yes24c132$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.03200%0 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c115.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.637,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes16c110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd692…3a89backed Yes48c105.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4625029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d00…7507backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed No69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb8…7471backed No66c99.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.362955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes12c98.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes12c88.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3125119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No57c88.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0724966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c81.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4329…f54ebacked Yes38c77.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No54c74.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.581,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3c…4fecbacked No55c74.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.585250%26 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No61c74.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0731567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c70.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.612,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No76c70.44$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7916520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b3…487cbacked No74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.352828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1078…7627backed Yes45c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No61c62.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x252b…dfc9backed Yes30c60.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.976144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes36c60.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.719139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes48c53.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.822138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No58c52.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9334369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb497…8fb0backed Yes38c50.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.051553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.535362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.511619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa06a…7881backed Yes28c48.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ac…eb36backed Yes28c46.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4498…c984backed No55c46.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.671241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7323…2f6cbacked Yes22c46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2d…2debbacked Yes51c46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…14debacked Yes48c45.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.024535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a7…4743backed Yes52c45.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.552030%6 W · 14 L-5.8wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes44c44.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.778940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d27…8999backed No51c44.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f33…8da9backed Yes47c44.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.649944.4%44 W · 55 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d44…831bbacked Yes41c43.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5f…76d4backed Yes46c43.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.783036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-43.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7572…e484backed No71c40.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.011172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7817…d4b1backed Yes43c39.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.855420.4%11 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c39.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c38.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x60a0…da0dbacked No54c36.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes45c36.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No52c31.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac19…ce5ebacked No72c30.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…606bbacked Yes65c28.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eca…aec6backed Yes61c26.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes38c26.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0219133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdee9…90dbbacked Yes49c24.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No69c23.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.378957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c8…446cbacked Yes46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.125225%13 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked No74c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.466656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No50c20.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…fb20backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x517e…4fb2backed No74c18.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.699076.7%69 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc51c…5607backed No78c14.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e1…5968backed No76c13.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.