College Football · resolved market
Will Maryland beat Northwestern?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959d486540666bcc584791a647548527a8aad45fe0ac7e4663c6a2a4d244dd33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Maryland, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Northwestern | 48c | 2,862$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Maryland | 40c | 2,838$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.09 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3e6cbacked Maryland | 79c | 2,502$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Maryland | 47c | 2,045$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.39 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Northwestern | 67c | 1,500$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Northwestern | 21c | 1,340$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.6 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Northwestern | 21c | 1,231$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.3 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Northwestern | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Maryland | 27c | 312.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Maryland | 79c | 255.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Maryland | 67c | 232.6$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Maryland | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed Northwestern | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Northwestern | 50c | 147.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Northwestern | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Maryland | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Northwestern | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Northwestern | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Northwestern | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Maryland | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…979cbacked Maryland | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Northwestern | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Northwestern | 50c | 57.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Maryland | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Maryland | 79c | 41.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Maryland beat Northwestern?this page
- Will Maryland and Northwestern combine for 46 or more points?Over won
- Will Maryland beat Northwestern by 12 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.